English version machine-translated from the Vietnamese original — under review.
Timeline of key events (2018 - 2025)
- 2018-2019:
- The Trump administration launches the US-China trade war by imposing Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods over Beijing's intellectual property policies.
- Many US importers begin shifting orders from China to Vietnam to avoid the tariffs.
- The US imposes Section 232 tariffs (10%) on all imported steel and aluminium products on national security grounds (raised to 25% on 12/3/2025).
- 2020:
- The US-China "Phase One" agreement (requiring China to buy agricultural products and partially reducing List 4A tariffs to 7.5%) takes effect and later lapses without a Phase Two.
- The US investigates Vietnam for currency manipulation but later closes the case without imposing tariffs.
- 2021:
- The US Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) takes effect, banning imports of goods linked to Xinjiang, China.
- The US imposes anti-dumping (AD) duties on common alloy aluminium sheet from China (around 50-100%).
- 2023:
- The US aluminium association files an anti-dumping petition on aluminium extrusions from 14 countries (including Vietnam), over concerns that products from these countries are injuring the domestic industry.
- 10/2024:
- The US ITC concludes that the US aluminium industry is not materially injured by extruded aluminium from the 14 countries (including Vietnam), resulting in the DOC imposing no AD/CVD duties on Vietnamese aluminium extrusions.
- Vietnam's export turnover to the US reaches about USD 137 billion (nearly three times that of 2018).
- 2024 (end of year):
- The US opens an AD/CVD investigation into corrosion-resistant steel from Vietnam.
- 2025 (beginning of year):
- The administration of Donald Trump as the 47th President begins, continuing a strongly protectionist trade policy.
- The US and China reach a limited "truce" agreement; China concedes by restoring US access to certain rare earth minerals, but other disagreements are set aside for now. Most US tariffs on Chinese goods remain at their previous levels.
- Vietnam and China become the focus of US trade policy as two major exporting countries.
- The 2020 US-China Phase One agreement expires.
- March 2025:
- From 12/3/2025, the Trump administration restores and expands Section 232 tariffs on all imported steel and aluminium products at a uniform rate of 25%, with no exceptions or exemption quotas.
- April 2025:
- The US announces a plan to impose comprehensive tariffs on "most imports" at a baseline rate of 10%, which may rise higher depending on the trade deficit. The plan is postponed until 9/7/2025 to allow bilateral negotiations.
- The US threatens to impose very high tariffs (up to 46% on most goods) on Vietnam if no agreement is reached before 9/7/2025.
- End of May 2025:
- Container freight rates from Asia to the US West Coast are about USD 2,615/FEU.
- Early July 2025:
- Vietnam actively negotiates to reach a bilateral agreement with the US.
- 2/7/2025:
- President Trump announces that a "trade deal" has been reached with Vietnam. Under it, the US temporarily will not impose the 46% tariff and will instead apply a 20% rate to "many items" exported from Vietnam. "Disguised, transshipped" goods from third countries through Vietnam will be subject to tariffs of up to 40%. Vietnam will also open its market further to US goods.
- 9/7/2025:
- Deadline for the United States to negotiate bilaterally with other countries and avoid a comprehensive "tariff shock".
- Second half of 2025:
- Most Vietnamese exports to the US are subject to a 20% tariff under the new agreement, except for items subject to higher tariffs under Section 232 (25% for steel/aluminium) or anti-dumping duties.
- Chinese goods remain subject to Section 301 tariffs (7.5%-25%) and high AD/CVD duties, in addition to Section 232 tariffs (25%) for steel/aluminium.
List of key actors
- Donald Trump: 47th President of the United States (from 2025). He continues a strongly protectionist trade policy, using tariffs as a negotiating tool with most partners, and has initiated important tariff policies concerning Vietnam and China.
- Murray Hiebert: Expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He has commented on the impact of Trump's tariff policy on Vietnam, stressing the importance of the 20% agreement for Vietnam to stay competitive.
- Government of Vietnam: Represents Vietnam in trade negotiations with the US. The Government of Vietnam has actively negotiated to reach the 20% bilateral tariff agreement and is working to control origin fraud.
- US Administration: All US government agencies responsible for trade policy, including the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the US Department of Commerce (DOC) and the International Trade Commission (ITC).
- US Department of Commerce (DOC): The agency responsible for conducting investigations and imposing anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) duties.
- International Trade Commission (ITC): An independent US agency that determines whether domestic industries are injured by imports, which affects the application of AD/CVD duties.
- US aluminium association: The organisation representing the US aluminium industry, which filed anti-dumping petitions on aluminium extrusions from many countries, including Vietnam.
- US consumers: The final group affected by trade policies. Their attitudes and perceptions of "Made in China" and "Made in Vietnam" goods play an important role in the competitive advantage of the two countries.
Compiled by the Market Research Department - NSCA Company
